Down Jones Index, one hundred years.

Published Sunday, March 25, 2018.

There are two economic forecasts you can make with confidence, based on the record of history. In a period of economic growth, the next recession is inevitable, while during a recession, the next recovery is on its way.

More difficult to forecast is when these events will occur. But based on the pattern of 89 years since the start of the Great Depression, the next recession seems near at hand. It seems likely to decimate Donald Trump’s diminishing political support of about one-third of U.S. voters.

There have been 13 recessions since the Great Depression, according to U.S. government data, hosted on Wikipedia. The shortest time between recessions was one year; the longest was 10 years, and the average was 592 months, essentially five years. The last recession is reported to have ended in June 2009, so we are now well into the ninth year of no recession, closing in on that record 10-year recession free period.

There are other factors in addition to historical trends that raise concern about when to expect the next recession. One is the U.S. unemployment rate. At some point above zero (an impossible figure), a declining national unemployment rate would inescapably trigger a recession. Economists seem uncertain what that trigger point might be, but the current four percent  unemployment is at least close enough to be a warning.

The U.S. economy will also suffer from the high import duties imposed by the Trump administration on steel, aluminum, Canadian newsprint, and other items. High import tariffs may be aimed at exporting nations but they also adversely affect importing nations, beyond doubt. Whether such tariffs might trigger a recession may be open for debate, but they can make the next one more severe.

A recession prior to the U.S. midterm elections in November would obviously be bad news for the Republic party and Donald Trump. To avoid that would require an odds-defying, recession-free period of nine years and five months.

U.S. administrations almost never take credit for creating an economic boom, because they know that if they did, they would get the blame for the next recession. But that didn’t stop Trump from foolishly claiming he created the latest economic boom.